Reasonable doubt

Reasonable doubt


Alain E. Roch, MBA

President and CEO

Reasonable doubt

What’s done is done: on January 20, the new President of the United States of America was officially sworn in for the next four years. In light of our activities, our daily lives, our vision for the future, and our ongoing efforts to safeguard our clients’ long-term interests, I would like to touch upon a few considerations that contribute to our reasonable doubt.

Ever the populist, Mr. Trump is a great producer of shocking announcements, much like his European alter-egos. While these assertions certainly produce an immediate effect, their long-term consequences remain to be seen. What leeway does the new President really have in terms of domestic and international politics? It is by no means clear to me that the American technostructure or even the elected representatives of the dominant party are ready to do anything and everything. In fact, we are already seeing evidence of opposition these days.

After the grace period that followed this tumultuous election, reality was quick to set in again for politicians…and investors.

I would also add that the major players of the global economy have their own fiscal and financial strategies, and that the defense of their interests can weigh heavily on actual White House decisions.

As I wrote in our last issue, an advantageous tax policy can produce positive effects, but will inevitably be linked to interest rate hikes. I advised readers to “watch out for the backlash.” Remember the lively debate that arose quickly between the President of the Federal Reserve and Mr. Trump.

So, whether Mr. Trump is the puppet of a particular lobby group or a president who will impose his own lobby on all the country’s organized bodies, we must be careful when we talk about this sort of political and economic power. I would simply point out that authoritarianism does not imply authority.

Should we follow this movement? Certainly not. Should we anticipate it? Naturally—while staying one step ahead and with a fallback position just in case, as always. This is a definite advantage given that, like philosophers or judges, we are always mindful of the principle of reasonable doubt.